30 Apr 2020

Agent-based Simulation Model applied to social behaviours determining pandemic dynamics – Part 2

Introduction

We have created a model based on artificial agents that describes some aspects of the diffusion dynamics of COVID-19, especially aspects related to the link between social behaviour and contagion dynamics. Starting from the first part of this article [1], published on April 2, we investigated how we can link a particular socio-cultural attitude to some effects on the lethality of the epidemic. As a starting data, we show the effect that the epidemic had in terms of difference between the number of deaths in the first quarter of 2019 and the first quarter of 2020, in 1,698 Italian municipalities [2]. Once we have established how the incidence of the virus was very irregular, we assume that one of the causes may be some social behaviour, through the simulation model described in the previous publication [1], which has been appropriately revised.

Authors of the study:

Federico Cecconi – CSO QBT Sagl, UCM Professor in Artificial Intelligence.
Alessandro Barazzetti – Head of R&D, QBT sagl – Professor in Data analysis and advanced forecasting techniques, UCM Higher Education Institution Malta and Swiss Campus – Gen. Dir. Science Adventure Sagl Switzerland

 

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Covid-19 pandemic from Ud’Anet UCM on Vimeo.

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